In this article, we will talk about the principles of online casino gambling. And these principles work for almost all types of gambling games where you can bet. The most famous and popular are considered to be:
- gaming machines
You probably already know that when playing for a long time, the advantage is always on the casino's side, so there is no guaranteed way to win. Otherwise casino owners would lose money all on these games.
For each game, the casino's advantage depends on the rules of the game and the payout rules for winning. These rules apply all the time, from round to round. The statistics work in the casino's favor when playing for a long time: even if you are lucky enough to win a large sum, but you continue to play, you still risk losing in the end.
But it is often possible to play a few rounds and win. In this case, the result of your visit to the casino will be random - it depends on your luck and does not depend on statistics. This is exactly the chance when lucky players win and can knock down the statistics of casino advantage. That is why casino games such as slots and roulette are called gambling games - their outcome is random and depends on luck.
It is important to be aware of the 2 main characteristics of the game: payout ratio and variance.
Payout ratio (RTP)
RTP literally translates as the return to the player (return percentage). RTP rate determines how many bets a player can get back from all the bets he made on a particular slot in the long run.
This indicator is calculated by a simple formula: the sum of all winnings divided by the amount of bets (in percent). If the result is less than 100%, the coefficient will be on the side of the casino. The percentage of casino advantage is calculated: 100% minus the RTP. For example, if the payout percentage is 95%, then the percentage of casino advantage is 100% - 95% = 5%.
RTP for most casino games ranges from 95% to 99% Let's look at how different percentage returns in different gambling games.
Roulette payout percentage
In European roulette, the probability of winning when betting on black is:
divide the number of black digits (there are 18) by the total number of digits (37). If we bet on any color, our winning is doubled. Then the ratio of our roulette winnings is: 2 * 18 / 37 = 0.973 = 97.3%. Probability of winning the casino is 100% - 97.3% = 2.7%. Roulette has the same RTP for all types of bets (on color, numbers, etc.).
If you play roulette and bet all your money at once, you'll lose an average of 2.7%. But if you bet again and again, you'll lose an average of 2.7% from each bet each time - you'll end up losing a lot more.
Blackjack kickback percentage
Blackjack rules can vary from casino to casino. The RTP may also vary. But in general, blackjack when using a basic strategy gives RTP of 99.5%. Usually, in real casinos, the payout percentage ranges around 95%-102%. It depends on how the cards are counted. Players who estimate the actual RTP in blackjack try to bet higher, as long as the RTP is over 100%. This is done in order to win in the future. On the other hand, the casino also has means by which, it tries to prevent the player from counting cards.
Percentage return on slot machines
RTP in slots ranges from 92% to 97%. It depends on symbols on virtual reels, payout table and other rules of particular game.
Rate of return on games and betting systems
You need to understand that the percentage of fast payouts is determined in each game. For example, you bet $100 on roulette and win $1200. You continue playing and place 12 more bets: $100 = $1200. RTP should be calculated for each round separately. Statistical expected casino profit in this case will be:
($100 + $1200) * (100% — 97.3 %) = $1300 * 2.7 % = $35.1
Note. These 97.3% are roulette RTP. If you continue to play with your winnings, expect to lose more. Many players continue to play with their winnings over and over again.
Professional players should distinguish between the RTP of a game (which is counted for each specific game) and the payout percentage of the betting system. The betting system is determined by the game of your entire stay in the casino. It includes: the type of game, varieties/settings, betting size rules and decisions to stop the game.
Let's understand what the RTP of a betting system is. It is the ratio of the sum of all wins of the winning players to the ratio of other unlucky players.
Warning: Sometimes players are misled by changing these figures in places on the sites. Thus, the impression is created, that players lose only a small portion of their money (exactly as much as the casino wins), and the remaining money shall be distributed among the winners. But this is incorrect. In fact, if players bet money from their previous winnings, they lose much more. In this case, the RTP of the betting system can fall to 50% - that is, you will lose half of your money.
Optimal betting system - where RTP is the same for all games. To do this, you should avoid betting out of winnings. The easiest way is to bet all your money in one round. Keep a satisfying bet in the game until you win or lose. This strategy is great for roulette, where you can estimate your odds.
Suppose you have $100 and a win of $900 will satisfy you. In this case, placing $100 on the square (4 numbers) would be an optimal strategy for you. In this case, you will either win a large amount from the casino or you will be left without $100. In this case, your odds are quite fair. But this strategy has a big disadvantage - you will have to play for a short time.
Dispersion in gambling
Dispersion shows how fast your capital changes while you are playing. With a small variance you win often, but small amounts. In that case, your capital changes evenly (unfortunately, downwards). If the variance is large, the wins will be rare, but large. It turns out that a slow loss of money is justified by big winnings.
The variance of the game can also be described by a statistical distribution of the amount of winnings. As a rule, winning is proportional to the bet. For example, when betting on a color in roulette, it increases by 2 times when winning. At the same time, betting on a particular number increases the winning by 36 times.
The variance (dispersion) on slot machines is more complex. You can win many times in different combinations an amount multiple of your bet. So in slots it is difficult to say specifically, as a lot depends on the provider and is defined as a "small", "medium", "high" loss. We decided that slot machine variance should be better described and made a separate topic about it.
The variance has a big impact on your chances of leaving the casino with a winnings. The main rule of thumb: the higher the variance, the better. The first reason for high variance is that you can win an amount in one round that will satisfy you. The second reason is that you lose more rounds and don't want to bet further (has a negative effect on RTP). In other words, you will lose your money very quickly. The third reason is that if you can win an amount greater than a multiple of your bet, you reduce your bet to win the same amount. This again reduces the bet amount and your long term losses.
It's interesting that many people don't evaluate variance the way they evaluate RTP. Often the game is judged solely by its RTP - roulette is worse than blackjack, as it has a lower RTP. This approach is wrong. Roulette with its 36:1 ratio (when betting on a number) is much more profitable when winning than blackjack (without card counting). High variance is better from a mathematical point of view. The player must learn to use it to his advantage.
How variance affects the RTP of a betting system
Let's imagine two players: each of them came to the casino with $100. Player X bets $10 on the roulette number. Player Y bets on a color. Each of them loses some of his money to the casino. The player leaves if his winnings exceed $500 or he loses all his money.
Player X left the casino with 14.8 % of his winnings. His average capital was $648 and he played an average of 16 rounds. This means that the RTP of the betting system was 95.19 %.
Note: RTP of a betting system is calculated as the ratio of winnings to net losses. Net wins are calculated: 14.8% * ($648 - $100). Net losses are calculated as $100 * (100 % - 14.8 %). It turns out (($648 - $100) * 14.8 %) / ($100 * (100 % - 14.8 %)) = 95.19 %.
Player Y managed to win only 5.15% of all attempts. His system yielded an average win of $500, and the RTP was 21.42%. Player Y, on the other hand, likes to play for a long time - he played an average of 274 rounds.
This example proves that variance affects the odds of winning in a casino. The system payout ratio of player X was 4.4 times higher than the RTP of the system used by player Y.
How bet size affects the RTP of a betting system
The amount of winnings in gambling depends on the size of bets. The total payout ratio of the betting system also affects the betting size. The rule is simple: the higher your bet size, the higher the RTP of the betting system. We assume that all other rules of the betting system remain the same.
As an example, let's prove the influence of the size of bets on the result of a betting system. Let's turn again to roulette. Players arrive in the casino with $100 and stop if their equity is 0 or exceeds $500. Player X bets $20 and player Y bets $5. Both players bet on a color.
After many times we simulated this situation and found out that in 10.9 %, players won $500. This means that the RTP was 48.68% and an average of 84 rounds were played. On the other hand, player Y managed to get to $500 figure out of a million attempts, only 0.88% times (average of 706 rounds, RTP 3.55%). This suggests that if player Y wants to leave the casino with $500 winnings, he needs to win 80 times more than he loses. This is an extremely unlikely case for roulette.
Obviously, with low variance you can play longer, but your chances of winning a large sum of money drop significantly.
On the other hand the combination of high variance and high betting is interesting. Player Z came to the casino with $100 and decided to bet everything on 1 number. The probability of player Z winning is 2.71%. If he wins, each player will walk away with $3600 (RTP 97.4 %).
Recommended roulette betting system
Which betting system to choose to have a good chance of winning? The table below shows the results of our research. The variable is the size of a single bet and the type of bet (color/number). Each player starts with $100 and leaves if he wins $500 or more.
As you can see, the high variance for betting on numbers is 10 times higher than for betting on color. In addition, the game will last much longer.
If you bet $2 on a color, your chances of winning $500 tends to 0. Out of a million attempts, no one has won.
If you want to gamble and have a good chance of winning, we suggest playing with maximum variance and playing small stakes.
In roulette with a budget of $100, the best bets are $2 - $4.
- The payout percentage (RTP) of gambling games is calculated for each specific round. will be much less, If you bet money won in the previous round, this figure will be much less.
- The RTP of your betting system depends on the RTP of the game, the variance of the game, the size of the bets and the rules when leaving and continuing the game.
- The variance of the game is determined by the size of the potential winnings (a multiple of the bet). The more bets are won, the higher is the dispersion.
- A high variance can easily beat a higher RTP: high variance is better mathematically.
- The higher the variance, the greater the chances of picking up a big win.
- The higher the bet in one round, the higher the RTP of your betting system.
- Choose a game with high variance and small stakes. A few wins will lead you to a good win (or you will lose it all).
- It is important to find a balance between the duration of the game and the RTP of your betting system.